(Image Credit: CFJC Today / Kent Simmonds)

By Dylana Kneeshaw

IRAN CONFLICT

Future impact of Iran-US conflict unclear, but other nations want to avoid escalation: TRU expert

Jan 8, 2020 | 4:06 PM

KAMLOOPS — After the US-ordered airstrike that killed a top Iranian general, Iran retaliated this week with missile strikes on two Iraqi military bases housing US troops.

So far, no fatalities have been reported, and US leaders have said they’re willing to de escalate the situation.

TRU Political Science Professor Robert Hanlon says this could be the end of planned retaliation acts, as further violence could mean a larger conflict.

“There is little interest in a long term conflict in this part of the world” he explains. “So I see it more as, there are other players that need to step up. We see, for example, China released a message today, condemning it, calling for a calm. There’s other parties that don’t want this to escalate.”

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The pause in escalation does give some short-term hope to those watching the fallout unfold, however Hanlon says its not clear what the long term consequences are.

“The real concern though is Iran’s withdrawal from its nuclear committment. So there is a clear threat of nuclear proliferation in its arms program. So we’ll see how that goes, but that is the longer (term) concern that I would have.”

Recent turmoil has led to Canadian troops putting a NATO training mission in Iraq on hold, which Kamloops Thompson Cariboo MP Cathy McLeod says will hopefully be brought back.

“We have temporarily moved our troops to Kuwait, but again it’s very much a volatile situation.”

McLeod says the federal government is also trying to find out what happened to a passenger flight which crashed near Tehran this week. All on board were killed, including 63 Canadians.

“It’s very complicated as you can imagine, given the other issues happening in the Middle East, and so again, I think our government is committed to a thorough investigation, and using any lever that they can, and we absolutely support them on that.”

There are information services available through Global Affairs for any friends or family members of those who lost their lives in the plane crash, and McLeod adds that her office can help put people in touch with the service.

With all the uncertainty, a travel advisory has been issued by the Government of Canada for those travelling to Iran, and McLeod says it shouldn’t be taken lightly.

“I think it’s very unsettled, you can see what’s happening over there, and I think a travel advisory should be heeded by Canadians,” she notes. “You shouldn’t be going there unless you have to go there, so certainly I would encourage anyone who is considering travel to look at the current travel advisories.”

The situation is changing each day, but given that it is part of decades of conflict within the Middle East, Hanlon says it will likely take a while to reach any sort of peaceful resolution.

“There’s a lot of different outside factors there with lots of interests — business interests, oil interests, geo-political interests,” Hanlon explains. “So it’s going to take a long, complex discussion to get through this. I don’t know if I’ll see it in my lifetime, but I hope so.”