By Canadian Press

Is hurricane Lee headed for Canada? The ‘spaghetti models’ can be misleading: expert

Sep 8, 2023 | 10:00 AM

HALIFAX — For residents of Canada’s East Coast, some of the latest images showing the potential path northward for a rapidly intensifying hurricane Lee are disturbing.

By combining multiple computer-generated forecasts, meteorologists have produced maps of the western Atlantic Ocean that suggest the powerful storm could slam into the Maritimes late next week.

But an expert says these long-range models are of little use beyond about five days.

Chris Fogarty, program manager at the Canadian Hurricane Centre in Halifax, says these spaghetti models — so called because the layers of predicted tracks look like splayed noodles — don’t adequately represent the broad range of possible forecasts.

As an example of that lack of accuracy, Fogarty pointed to the path recently taken by hurricane Franklin earlier this month.

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The 10-day spaghetti model for Franklin also indicated it would head toward Atlantic Canada, but its actual track took the storm out to sea long before it came close to Canadian waters.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 8, 2023.

The Canadian Press