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By David Charbonneau

Eyeview

CHARBONNEAU: Life imitates art — the movie ‘Contagion’

Apr 2, 2020 | 10:07 AM

THE MOVIE CONTAGION (2011) accurately predicted some aspects of the current COVID-19 pandemic. Of course, the movie is meant to be entertaining and has a happy ending. (Spoiler alert: I’m going to reveal some details of the film.)

Nobody needed a crystal ball to predict the film’s fictional epidemic. It was obvious to anyone who watched the SARS pandemic of 2003. The movie’s screenwriter, Scott Z. Burns, conducted months of in-depth research into the science of pandemics and recruited epidemiologists to develop a realistic plot, edit the script, and train the actors who would portray health officials, doctors and scientists.

The SARS-CoV-1 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) is a model for the film. Like all coronavirus outbreaks, including the film’s fictional one called MEV-1, it’s thought to have originated from bats that spread to other animals. In Contagion, the spread of MEV-1 is traced to pigs which have been infected by bats.

The movie explains the concept of “R-naught (Ro)”, that is the number of people infected by one carrier of the virus. If Ro equals two, for example, infections would grow exponentially by a power of two.

The estimation of Ro for COVID-19 swings radically because we are still in the middle of the pandemic. The Journal of Travel Medicine calculated a Ro on February 19, 2020, from 1.4 from 6.49. Others say it’s more in line with the ordinary cold, as low as one or two. By comparison, the Ro for measles is 16.

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Coronaviruses are not always deadly. Some just cause the common cold. Other coronaviruses are not as benign; SARS-CoV-1, MERS-CoV, and now COVID-19 cause epidemics.

Contagion also introduces the now familiar concepts of pandemic control: social distancing (now relabelled physical distancing), hand-washing, not touching your face.

What the movie didn’t anticipate was a U.S. president like Donald Trump. A movie character like him would have been unbelievable to audiences of 2011 who still expected rational politicians. The references to politicians in the film are sparse but the senator of Minnesota is statesman-like, calling for quarantine, as it the president.

There is a Trump-like character, however. Alan Krumwiede (played by Jude Law) is a flimflam man with millions of followers on social media. “We definitely wanted him to have a messianic streak”, said producer Steven Soderbergh. The self-promoting Krumwiede sells a homeopathic remedy called Forsythia as a cure for MEV-1. He fakes illness and drinks his homeopathic cure online, telling his audience that if he is here tomorrow then it worked. And, ta-da, he’s cured and makes a fortune selling Forsythia to his gullible followers.

The current flimflam man in the office of U.S. president has also been promoting an unproven cure. President Trump has hyped the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19, although he hasn’t faked illness and sold the drug as cure. But he did claim the drug could be “one of the biggest game-changers in the history of medicine.”

The movie ends with a vaccine being invented and the world is saved.

The COVID-19 movie is still unwinding and the ending not clear. Will the virus peak this summer? Will there be a second wave? Will the hoped-for vaccines work? Will the economy be decimated? Stay tuned.

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Editor’s Note: This opinion piece reflects the views of its author, and does not necessarily represent the views of CFJC Today or the Jim Pattison Broadcast Group.