TRU wildfire expert develops new forecasting tool to strengthen national wildfire preparedness

“I see positive signs we’re moving in the right direction.”

Flannigan said the publicly available tool aims to help people and communities be better prepared ahead of potential extreme fire weather events.

“We need to be better prepared for what’s coming,” Flannigan added. “Often, we can see the extreme fire weather seven-to-10 days in advance. Remember the heat dome from 2021? Meteorologists and fire weather personnel were saying seven-to-10 days in advance, ‘Look out, look out, look out.'”

Flannigan says knowing where extreme fire weather is going to be will allow resources to be moved ahead of time into areas where new fire starts are likely to occur. He said that will allow crews to put out unwanted fires, while also allowing others to take steps to prevent fires from sparking.

“Emergency management has phases – prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery,” Flannigan said. “Spending more money and effort on prevention and mitigation usually saves you money down the line. You avoid some of those catastrophic losses like Jasper, Lytton, Fort McMurray, Barrington – there’s a long list – Kelowna, Shuswap. It goes on and on.

“Unfortunately, as our climate continues to change and we get warmer and drier, during the fire season, we’re going to see more fire.”

In a statement, Shannon Wagner, TRU’s vice-president research, said the initiative builds on the university’s commitment to leadership in wildfire. Wagner also said it reflects how research can help support communities while also addressing urgent climate challenges.

“Wildfire affects communities across Canada in profound ways and the need for timely, scientific information has never been greater,” said Wagner. “This new fire weather outlook demonstrates how Mike Flannigan and TRU are contributing practical tools and knowledge that can help Canadians better prepare for increasingly complex wildfire seasons.”

Flannigan plans to expand his weekly forecasts – which are posted on TRU’s website – to include fire start predictions and more infographics to make it easier for people to interpret.

“This is a national tool that I’m building and there has been communication with the federal government,” Flannigan said. “Canada does not have a federal emergency management agency – a FEMA. Every other G7 country does but they are taking steps in that regard.”

“With an early warning system we can do things to prevent the fire, so it’s a bit different than other hazards – hurricanes, floods, earthquakes – because we can put in fire bans. We can put in forest closures, which are very unpopular, but very effective at avoiding human-caused fires.”

You can find the Canada Fire Weather Outlook and subscribe for updates here.

by Victor Kaisar

TRU wildfire expert develops new forecasting tool to strengthen national wildfire preparedness

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