Maduro arrested (Image Credit: CNN)

By Michael Reeve

'Depends on how the US is going to lead'

TRU professor talks impact of Maduro arrest, US actions in Venezuela

Jan 5, 2026 | 5:25 PM

KAMLOOPS — Over the weekend, United States Special Forces apprehended Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro on US federal drug trafficking charges, removing him from power and transporting him to New York to face prosecution. President Donald Trump has claimed the regime change will now allow his administration to run the South American country. 

The arrest has already impacted the Canadian economy, with oil company shares falling in Monday (Jan. 5) trading. 

“This is going to have impact not only for China, as China is the largest importer (from Venezuela) but also for Canada,” said TRU assistant professor Saira Bano. “If US companies are going into Venezuela and they are going to invest there and do business there, it means the demand for Canadian oil is going to go down — so for the Canadian economy, obviously it is going to have impact.”

The US has claimed the arrest was centered around Maduro’s ties to drugs, something Trump has taken a hard line on during his second term. But with the arrest coming under US federal charges, it’s opened up a conversation of legality in the global world order.

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“This can be dangerous precedent. That is why Russia and China are strongly criticizing it,” said Bano. “They criticize in the strongest terms that it is a violation of sovereignty of a state and that the US has no legal (standing) whatsoever under international law to take this action. But let’s be honest — this is how great powers behave.”

You don’t have to look far back through the pages of a history book to find a long list of failed regime changes, with the USA again at the centre of the action. 

“President (George W.) Bush, at that time, declared victory right after removing Saddam Hussein from power. But at the strategic level it proved to be failure, as it led to instability,” said Bano. “History doesn’t tell us that it’s going to lead to stability. It’s going to create more problems and it is going to make a bad situation worse. But it also depends on how the US is going to lead the political transition.”

Maduro has pleaded not guilty to the drug trafficking charges in a New York court. Back in Venezuela, Bano believes it will be incumbent on the US to exit the region at the right time.

“If the US stays there for too long, it means that US is going to be entangled into another no-end war, like Afghanistan and Iraq. The trick is to create this delicate balance there where too little is going to lead to chaos and too much will lead to quagmire for the United States,” said Bano.