Image Credit: Kent Simmonds / CFJC Today

By Dylana Kneeshaw

CANADA-US TARIFFS

Trade war uncertainty making its mark on economic activity, Kamloops business investment plans

Mar 7, 2025 | 5:20 PM

KAMLOOPS — The tariff situation between Canada and the United States is changing by the hour, with Friday (March 7) marking another shift in the ongoing trade war. The latest bout has put Canadian business owners in a tough state of uncertainty.

“It goes back in two directions. One, in terms of employment and employing people. Can we hire some more people or are we going to have to let people go? But also for the longer term, in terms of making investment decisions. Uncertainty is bad for investment decisions, generally,” explains Jim Gaisford, an economics professor at Thompson Rivers University and Interim Dean at the Bob Gaglardi School of Business and Economics.

Gaisford points out that both countries have heavily integrated supply chains and many businesses will be taking a wait-and-see approach with long-term investments.

“In the short term, there’s going to be a little bit of a flurry across the border on some supply chain items like car parts and whatnot to stockpile the stuff you need so it’s already in the United States or Canada and it doesn’t have to cross the border multiple times,” says Gaisford. “The uncertainty really creates havoc for economic activity, generally.”

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The situation prompted a Friday morning meeting among Kamloops Chamber of Commerce members and Executive Director Acacia Pangilinan says business operators are trying to keep track of what items and industries are currently impacted.

“I think that people are trying to take that into consideration but I also think that we’re seeing people pause on projects or growth opportunities that they had maybe planned for the year because they just don’t know what next month is even going to look like for their business,” notes Pangilinan.

The local chamber has been vocalizing policy recommendations to its national body. On the ground level, Pangilinan says the organization has been sharing resources for local businesses to help them navigate operations.

“Looking at their cash flow, looking at their supply chain, how they’re going to right-size their operations. These are all things that business owners can be doing right now to prepare for what impacts they might feel from tariffs,” explains Pangilinan. “But from an advocacy perspective, we’re really focused in on those inter-provincial trade barriers. [We’re] trying to break those down across Canada so that we can open up trade with our neighbouring provinces.”

Gaisford doesn’t mince words when noting the economic adjustment will be difficult, but he also surmises Canada will be exploring what kind of purchasing and production can be done domestically and what international investment options are out there.

“I think that it is an eye opener and a surprise. As much as I’m emphasizing that the uncertainty really matters and it hurts, it will hurt especially in the short term. I would really emphasize that Canada will survive,” says Gaisford.

“This is a really important economic threat and it’s become a political threat with Trump’s rhetoric around the 51st state, as well. But Canada’s economy is strong. When we look at the adjustment, this could shave 2, 3 or 4 per cent off our GDP, and maybe a little more in the short term while we adjust, but we will survive,” he adds. “There’s a bit of reassurance, as well as a reality check here. We are fighting with the big guy on the street, so this is going to hurt us more than it’s going to hurt them, for sure.”