Image Credit: The Associated Press

By Doug Collins

One Man's Opinion

COLLINS: Predicting wildfire behaviour still an inexact science

Jan 16, 2025 | 6:00 AM

MORE AND MORE WORK IS BEING DONE to study the causes of wildfires, but it’s going to take many years of data collection and interpretation of that data to determine if any patterns develop that will help determine how to best tackle an individual fire before it does major damage. I don’t know if that’s possible.

We now have studies starting up at the Wildfire Centre here in Kamloops, which may produce some ideas down the road. But don’t hold your breath. It’s going to take time.

The new centre will provide courses on mitigation efforts, techniques for fighting fires, the most effective equipment, maybe new ways of getting ahead of blazes, the role winds play in dealing with fires, and the ongoing problems caused by climate change, will all be up for study.

Consultations between governments at all levels, discussions involving First Nations elders and knowledge keepers, longtime residents will help develop some guidelines for particular areas, but no one should expect wildfires to disappear. There might have been some different things done that might have prevented Lytton from being destroyed or the communities of Fort McMurray and Jasper being hit hard, the East Shuswap, Elephant Hill, Barriere. The list goes on, but could this destruction have been avoided or at least mitigated? Maybe, but I doubt it.

Seeing the fires in Hawaii that destroyed places like Lahaina and the current fires in and around Los Angeles doesn’t give me hope that there is a magic wand that can be waved by the witches in Wicked that will give us peace of mind. What we can do is to continue to study, learn and consult, to add bits of knowledge about fire behaviour to the knowledge base, to carefully choose equipment, from the newest pieces of equipment on the ground to planes in the air and most importantly, to factor in the role climate change plays in all this. These slow and steady steps will lead to success in the long run. But it’s hard to know that and watch the catastrophic devastation in Los Angeles. And knowing that this type of fire is almost impossible to stop once it gets a good Santa Ana blow behind it.

One Man's Opinion

COLLINS: Predicting wildfire behaviour still an inexact science

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It’s hard to be a realist in the midst of what’s going on, but in many of these situations, we are paying the price for our ignorance in years gone by. And that is perhaps the biggest pill to swallow, that we paid so little attention to the preservation of the environment decades ago and it’s a huge price we’re paying now.

I’m Doug Collins and that’s One Man’s Opinion.

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Editor’s Note: This opinion piece reflects the views of its author, and does not necessarily represent the views of CFJC Today or Pattison Media.