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Two and Out

PETERS: Political polling is getting worse because people don’t answer their phones anymore

Aug 9, 2024 | 12:30 PM

HOW HAS RAPID TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE impacted the accuracy of political polling? I have a theory.

One of the many ways life has changed with advent of smartphone technology has to do with phone calls.

Unless we are expecting a phone call, many of us won’t pick up when our phone starts ringing.

We let it go to voicemail or ignore it all together.

Case in point for me was a call I received the other day during the busiest part of my workday.

My call display told me it was Ekos Research calling. I have enough familiarity to know Ekos is a polling firm who was probably calling to gauge my opinion on the upcoming B.C. election.

I let it go to voicemail, though the caller did not leave one. Instead, they called again about four hours later, as I was relaxing in the evening.

Once again, I let it go to voicemail and once again, Ekos did not leave one. They haven’t called since.

I don’t have anything against Ekos Research — I just didn’t have any interest in being surveyed, thank-you very much.

I suspect I’m not the only one who reacts the same way to calls like this.

We feel similarly to phone polling as we do to telemarketers — just leave us alone, please.

The sentiment hasn’t changed with smartphones, but the general reluctance to answer the phone means we rarely actually end up speaking to someone like a telephone pollster.

If fewer and fewer of us are speaking to pollsters, it must be more and more difficult for companies like Ekos Research to gather sufficient data to make their polling accurate.

Polling companies surely stand behind their scientific methodologies, but the reality is, advance polls have been less and less accurate in recent years.

Most recent polling has shown the provincial NDP and Conservatives neck-and-neck in public support, with the Greens and BC United parties far behind.

We’ll see if that’s the way it actually plays out on election day.

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Editor’s Note: This opinion piece reflects the views of its author, and does not necessarily represent the views of CFJC Today or Pattison Media.