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By Michael Reeve

2024 WILDFIRE SEASON

Underlying drought still concerns BC Wildfire forecasters ahead of 2024 season

Jun 12, 2024 | 5:30 PM

KAMLOOPS — On Wednesday (June 12), the BC Wildfire Service published its latest seasonal outlook for the upcoming summer which showed some regions of the province, notably the coast and southern parts of B.C., have received increased moisture over winter and spring. Other areas, including the northeastern parts of the province, are experiencing prolonged drought and are expected to remain at high risk for wildfire.

There are currently 108 wildfires burning across the province of B.C. and while parts of the province have received more precipitation than in years past, conditions can change quickly.

“I can almost guarantee that conditions will change. And as we see the heat and dryness that is typical through July and August, we will start seeing increasing numbers (of wildfires),” said BCWS Lead Forecaster Matt MacDonald. “I think the chart that showed the increase in 2021 — that, again, is what we are anticipating this summer — a marked uptick as we get into July.”

Because of the underlying drought across vast parts of the province. the possibility of large fires igniting remains a factor.

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“Inevitably as we get into (summer), May and June are typically quiet parts of the season for us. They weren’t last year because the drought, the heat started much earlier. But as we get into the core of the fire season, mainly July and August, that underlying drought is going to be a huge driver in bringing us intense fires,” said MacDonald.

After the devastating 2023 wildfire season, B.C.s Forest Minister Bruce Ralston spoke to the preparations underway in 2024.

“As our climate changes, we are seeing the impacts with drought, wildfire and weather emergencies. We are seeing wildfire reach into communities that have never been impacted before,” said Ralston. “I want all British Columbians to know and be reassured that we have been working hard to prepare ahead of this summer and we will take all the steps necessary to keep people safe.”

B.C. has been facing an ‘el Niño’ weather system. BCWS is expecting those factors to die out as summer approaches, but that doesn’t mean eyes aren’t on potential climate wildcards.

“These persistent dry, warm conditions can really elevate the fire hazard and change the way our fuels respond and behave in the face of fire. That is one worth watching and with our changing climate, we are seeing a higher frequency of these blocking patterns. Instead of having a transient wet-to-cool-back-to-warm type of evolution, we get stuck in these longer persistent patterns. That will be one to watch, for sure, is long and persistent heat,” said MacDonald.

The good news, as 2024’s wildfire season begins, is human caused wildfires are down through April and May.