Insurance study that ranked Kamloops with highest wildfire risk unfair, incomplete: BC Wildfire Service

Two Natural Resources Canada metrics are used to determine the rankings: the Forecast Severity Rating and the Forecast Severity Anomaly. The overall risk score for each city was determined by combining the equally weighted average of the two metrics from May to September, providing a comprehensive assessment of wildfire risk, according to the MyChoice study press release.

“Looking at how this ranking was made, in terms of overlapping two long-term forecast models and it seems like just picking cities that are overlapping in the high-risk areas… probably not the most accurate way to do it,” Tower said, noting tools available on the BC Wildfire website may be of interest to those concerned about risk in their area.

Kamloops received a score of 9.4 out of 10. Saskatoon is ranked second, with a score of 8.8, while Regina, Kelowna and Medicine Hat are tied in third place, with scores of 8.6.

“The two [models] referenced in that study, if you’re lumping them in with 20 other models, they might help paint a picture,” Tower said, noting precipitation across B.C. in May and June is among important indicators that can shed light on summer wildfire risk.

“The tricky part is taking those in isolation. You’re really only seeing a very small part of the picture that likely should have some more data involved if you’re going as far as ranking cities across Canada.”

Tower noted several factors not taken into consideration in the study, including proximity to BC Wildfire Service hubs and access to structural and volunteer fire departments, along with local government and private initiatives in wildfire prevention and mitigation, fuel management and FireSmart activities.

“I wouldn’t say it’s probably fair to rank Kamloops as No. 1 if we’re looking across all of B.C. for a large number of factors,” Tower said.

“They’re using Natural Resource Canada information. That is a good source of information, but how they’re using that information may not be in the interest of actually relaying wildfire risk.”

Tower said areas west of Williams Lake in the Chilcotin and the highway corridor in the Fraser Valley from Lillooet to Boston Bar, for example, are likely at higher risk than Kamloops, pointing to localized fuel, temperature, storm and dryness concerns absent from the study.

About 18.5 million hectares of Canadian land burned in 2023, according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre, making it the worst wildfire year in recorded national history.

B.C. is making a habit of setting dubious wildfire records.

Nearly three-million hectares were razed last year in the province, more than doubling the previous-worst mark (1,354,300 hectares) established in 2018, which surpassed the record (1,216,100 hectares) set in 2017.

“While we are seeing insurance companies in the U.S. pulling out of high-risk areas due to the increasing frequency and severity of wildfires, especially in California, the situation in Canada remains different,” Aren Mirzaian, CEO of MyChoice, said in the study press release that was shared on news outlets across the country.

“In Canada, the insurance market has shown resilience and we have not yet reached the point where insurers are withdrawing coverage. However, the unprecedented scale of wildfires last year is a clear warning signal. We need to be proactive in understanding the risks and ensuring that Canadian home insurance offerings are robust enough to provide adequate coverage in these challenging times.”

In an addendum, the press release notes MyChoice is a premier rate-comparison resource that offers Canadians the lowest auto, home and life insurance rates quickly and conveniently from the comfort of their home.

“We’re a very high-profile topic to talk about and, especially in the summer, it gets a lot of media play and there are lots of narratives that go into that,” Tower said. “Really just looking at where information is coming from and what motives people might have for sharing it is super important when it comes to something as serious as wildfires that can have very devastating impact on both property and peoples’ lives.

“It is a little bit unfair to rank something like this and seemingly try to have a bit of, yes, fear mongering as part of that.”

by Marty Hastings

Insurance study that ranked Kamloops with highest wildfire risk unfair, incomplete: BC Wildfire Service

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