(Photo credit: BC River Forecast Centre).

By Stephanie Swensrude

SNOWPACK

River Forecast Centre predicts elevated risk for spring flooding

Mar 9, 2022 | 2:18 PM

KAMLOOPS — The B.C. River Forecast Centre (RFC) says above-normal snow pack levels and a cool spring ahead makes spring flooding likely across the province.

As of March 1, the North Thompson snowpack sits at 124 per cent of normal, the highest index since 1999.

“This is a very significant snow pack in the North Thompson. It’s not necessarily dramatic in its relative percentage above normal, just in terms of historical statistics it is a considerable year,” said Jonathan Boyd of the RFC.

The South Thompson is near normal at 102 per cent, but there are only four sites reporting across the South Thompson region. The report says that since the region borders the North Thompson and Upper Columbia, which measures 123 per cent of normal, the actual snow pack may be higher.

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Researchers from the RFC said this makes spring freshet flooding likely. However, the snowpack is not the only indicator of potential flooding.

Spring weather is the other major indicator. The report says the most likely cause for major flooding would be “a period of persistent cool temperatures and wet weather into the late spring, followed by a sudden heat wave of at least five or more days”.

“If we got a heat dome type event in maybe late May or early June, it could be a catastrophic situation,” said Boyd.

“Those are just the risks that, of course, every year presents itself. If the snow pack is high and you get those adverse weather conditions, there is of course the risk for major flooding.”

The report says that long-term forecasts by Environment and Climate Change Canada “indicate an increased likelihood of colder than normal temperatures from March through May for the entire province.”

The risk of spring freshet flooding is high due to a higher than normal snowpack and a forecast of cooler weather for the province delaying the melt. The report says the weather conditions over the next few months will ultimately decide whether or not the region will see flooding.

“Flooding is possible in years with normal or even below-normal, snowpack. Conversely, high snowpack does not typically lead to flooding without significant contributing weather during the snow melt season,” reads the report. “Weather conditions from April through June determine the timing, magnitude and rate of snow melt, and heavy rainfall events can exacerbate the situation.”