ROTHENBURGER: Kamloops flirts with population of 100,000, 34 years late

Is this a good thing, or a bad thing? Is it what we expected? It’s certainly taken a lot longer than planners of the past expected, and that’s not a bad thing.

Anyone who’s been here for more than a couple of years can visualize what it was like when they arrived as compared to what it is now. My own point of comparison is Sahali. When I began work at the old Kamloops News Advertiser in August of 1970, Kamloops ended at the top of Columbia Street hill. Brocklehurst, Westsyde, Barnhartvale, and Valleyview were semi-rural communities on the edges of town.

But let’s go back 30 years or so as a comparison. I have in my hands a document called Kamloops – A Democratic Profile published in May 1991. That year, the population was just under 65,000.

Between 1971 and 1981, Kamloops followed a general trend of larger centres, experiencing exceptionally high growth. That’s when Sahali sprang up and spread up the hillsides above the downtown area. But growth slowed considerably towards the end of that decade, hitting the economic downturn of 1981, and actually losing some of its population.

It was a classic boom and bust. The city went from growth that was way too fast, to stagnation. It came as a shock. The community plan had predicted a population of 100,000 by 1988. That’s how fast it had been growing.

So, 34 years later, the city still hasn’t hit the 100,000 mark, though the “metropolitan area” has.

When the 1981 slump hit, the number was adjusted to 80,000 but it still took much longer — to the turn of the century — to get close to that.

“It was not foreseen at that time that the employment base, the generator of growth, would not be able to sustain the early 1970s level of migration to the community,” the demographic survey said.

At the same time, demographics were shifting. Westsyde and Brocklehurst declined in population as the downturn hit, and Barnhartvale slowed. New growth went to Sahali and Aberdeen, with some in Valleyview (due to Juniper Ridge), North Kamloops and Rayleigh.

What’s also interesting is the manner of this growth. The 1986 census showed that 20 per cent of the population was made up of new residents, while 29 per cent of the 1981 population had left. There was also a decline in the birth rate, and a gradual aging of the population.

Ethnically, a quarter of Kamloopsians were of “British origin,” with other significant ethnicities including German and Italian.

Clearly, that, too, has shifted. We’re an even more diverse community now than we were then. The shock of 1981, when mortgage rates hit 20 per cent and people were cashing in their savings and RRSPs just to make their payments, was followed by a gradual upswing and a period of more controlled growth over the next decade.

Thankfully, we’ve experienced neither out-of-control growth nor catastrophic downturns since then, but there are warning signs on the horizon as the city struggles to keep up with the housing supply.

The advantages and disadvantages of growth are debatable. Population growth is hard to manage. The birth rate, in-migration and out-migration all have to occur in balance.

In general, very little control is or can be exerted over those things. The norm is to let ‘er fly and try to keep up with more subdivisions, roads, industrial parks and amenities.

Kamloops has benefited much from growth — we wouldn’t have the recreational and lifestyle facilities we do now if we hadn’t grown. But growth is costly, hard to direct and not always pretty. We’re experiencing that right now.

Where will it take us in the future? What will Kamloops look like 30 years from now? I won’t be around to see it but I’m pretty sure there will be a lot more houses, more people, bridges, roads, parks and — challenges.

Maybe the homeless issue will be fixed, crime will be down, and everyone can feel safe walking the streets again, Amazon will have built a huge new centre creating thousands of jobs and everyone will be driving electric cars and working from home.

What we don’t need is runaway growth. Slow and steady wins the race.

Mel Rothenburger is a former mayor of Kamloops and a retired newspaper editor. He is a regular contributor to CFJC Today, publishes the ArmchairMayor.ca opinion website, and is a director on the Thompson-Nicola Regional District board. He can be reached at mrothenburger@armchairmayor.ca.

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Editor’s Note: This opinion piece reflects the views of its author, and does not necessarily represent the views of CFJC Today or Pattison Media.

by Mel Rothenburger

ROTHENBURGER: Kamloops flirts with population of 100,000, 34 years late

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