(Image Credit: Government of BC)

By Mel Rothenburger

ARMCHAIR MAYOR

ROTHENBURGER: John Horgan’s election temptation is in the numbers

Sep 19, 2020 | 7:05 AM

THURSDAY CAME AND WENT and Premier John Horgan didn’t call an election. That was the day he unveiled his “Stronger B.C.” economic recovery plan, which was supposedly going to be the launching point, but it dropped with a bit of a thud.

Undaunted, the media pundits have re-adjusted their predictions to next week.

I’m still convinced there won’t be an election call, but what if there is? Would Horgan really win that majority? Would the Liberals and Greens be decimated? What would happen in Kamloops?

The foundation for most of the hype about an election is the public opinion polls that paint a highly tempting picture for Horgan. A recent Angus Reid poll, for example, found Horgan to be the most popular premier in the country.

Other polls show the NDP running far ahead of the Liberals as the party of choice. Not only that, the New Democrats have been shooting upward while the Liberals are dropping like a rock.

Boogie The Bridge

Boogie The Bridge Event Information

12h ago

Two and Out

PETERS: The Loop's eviction will show us what happens when a bandage is ripped off a gaping wound

9h ago

One Man's Opinion

COLLINS: 'Fairness' is not a word I would use to describe the federal budget

16h ago

The quickest way to get a sense of it is the 338canada.com website that aggregates polls into trends. Based on its collected findings, an election right now would be something of a massacre.

The NDP would take as many as 60 seats at the high end, with the Liberals holding on to only 25, while the Greens would keep their two. Compare that to current standings of 41 each for the NDP and Liberals, plus two Greens, two independents and one vacant.

Maybe it’s not all about COVID-19, but back at the start of the pandemic, the Liberals were positioned to keep 38 of their 41 seats while the NDP were barely into majority territory with 46 and the Greens three.

Even that was quite a fall from the 2017 election results when the Liberals won the popular vote and the most seats, and lost power.

According to 338Canada.com numbers, an election right now would see the NDP snag 47 per cent of the popular vote to the Liberals’ 32 and the Greens’ 15. An interesting outlier, though not an influencer, is the B.C. Conservatives, who have moved up to a little over six per cent.

Odds of winning for the NDP are predicted by the pollsters at 100 per cent. I’ve never seen an election prediction so definite.

The New Dems continue to have a strangle hold in metro Vancouver, Fraser Valley and Vancouver Island. The only regions relatively loyal to the BC Libs are in the Interior but even in these parts the two parties aren’t far apart in popular support.

Now here’s an interesting projection: Todd Stone would “likely” keep Kamloops-South Thompson but the pollsters view Peter Milobar’s Kamloops-North Thompson riding a “toss up,” with support for the Liberals and NDP in a dead heat. A few months ago, Milobar would have been an easy winner.

Three years ago, he won easily with 48 per cent of the vote to 30 per cent for the NDP’s Barb Nederpel. Still, when the prognosticators work their magical weighted formulas, they show Milobar with odds of winning at 54 per cent despite it being a toss up.

Todd Stone is comfortably ahead in Kamloops-South Thompson with about 46 per cent support compared to the NDP at 28 per cent. The difference between the north and south ridings can be accounted for by the fact the North Thompson has always leaned left, rather than anything to do with Milobar’s performance.

Meanwhile, down in Fraser-Nicola, we have the crap show going on over the NDP nomination of Aaron Sumexheltza and the mass resignation of the constituency association executive. Former members of the executive cite alleged interference and bullying by the provincial office.

Despite that, the party is projected as “likely” to take back the riding from the Liberals’ Jackie Tegart, who squeaked past the NDP’s Harry Lali by about 500 votes in 2017.

If all this seems whacky, keep in mind that it comes about through several different polls by the likes of Angus Reid, EKOS, and Insights West. Despite declining trust in polls after they were so wrong in the 2013 election, they’ve gotten back on track in recent years. In the 2017 election several of them were on the money.

The weak link in all this polling is that when it comes to individual ridings, the number of those polled can be pretty low. For example, one recent poll was based on less than 600 voters, which can have a high rate of accuracy overall but not so much when broken down by riding. And they don’t generally account for the popularity of individual candidates.

I continue to believe it’s all an academic discussion anyway. The reasons Horgan won’t give in to his temptation include a pandemic that’s getting worse again, not better, and the disdain with which an election call would be met.

Maybe we’ll know for sure next week.

AROUND THE TOWN: Kamloops City council this week approved the minutes of a meeting of the community relations committee of Feb. 24. Most of the minutes were about things that are now long past. They say the wheels of government turn slowly, but this is ridiculous… I happened to drive by a high school one afternoon this week shortly after it had been let out for the day. There were at least 200 students milling about in very close proximity and not a mask in sight. Pray tell, what good does it do to put all those COVID-19 measures in place inside the school when the kids ignore them outside the building after class?

Mel Rothenburger is a former mayor of Kamloops and a retired newspaper editor. He is a regular contributor to CFJC, publishes the ArmchairMayor.ca opinion website, and is a director on the Thompson-Nicola Regional District board. He can be reached at mrothenburger@armchairmayor.ca.

—

Editor’s Note: This opinion piece reflects the views of its author, and does not necessarily represent the views of CFJC Today or the Jim Pattison Broadcast Group.