EVERYBODY IN TOWN knows who’s going to win the next federal election. Just ask them.
And who will be the next MP for Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo? Just ask them.
Here’s a hint — it won’t be Gina Myhill-Jones.
I don’t mean to be unkind, but it’s unlikely Myhill-Jones will come anywhere close to Bill Sundhu’s 2015 second-place finish. There’s nothing about her candidacy that gives the party cause for confidence.
The first reason is that nobody knows who she is. The news release about her impending nomination by acclamation set for Sunday notes she’s “an active community leader and volunteer” who created a popular Facebook page called Cariboo Neighbours 911.
Those are admirable things but not the sort of credentials that catapult candidates into stardom. It takes years to build up the kind of credibility and community profile needed for federal politics.
Not that it never happens. Back in 2008 an unknown nurse named Cathy McLeod was handed the Conservative nomination in Kamloops. Her previous political experience consisted of a term as the mayor of Pemberton. Quite a few party faithful at the announcement were as surprised as anyone else. They’d never heard of Cathy McLeod.
But others who had eyed the nomination were told not to apply. The party needed a candidate to succeed Betty Hinton and they needed one fast.
McLeod was commonly known as “Cathy Who?” but she had something going for her that Myhill-Jones doesn’t — a party leader who was an incumbent prime minister still at the top of his game.
Only a massive new orange wave behind Jagmeet Singh could change things for the NDP candidate in Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, and how likely is that?
The other challenge for Myhill-Jones is her place of residency. She lives in the Carboo. To win this riding you pretty much have to live in Kamloops because it’s the population centre and that’s where the votes are.
So, largely for reasons outside her own control, Gina Myhill-Jones is not a threat to win.
What about the Greens, who suddenly have visions of becoming a legitimate political force in Ottawa? Jesse Ritcey wrote a good column this week in which he tried to paint a picture of what a Green victory would look like in Kamloops. Acknowledging that the Greens have never topped eight per cent here, he contends a Green wave is nonetheless a possibility.
Should Elizabeth May continue her strong performance as leader, and should Jody Wilson-Raybould give the party a shot in the arm by switching from the Liberals to the Greens, and should the other parties split the vote in the right way, it could happen, Ritcey surmises.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say no, it couldn’t. While local elections are very often won and lost on the performance of the party leader, the party also has to have a strong candidate. The strongest candidate in the past has been Donovan Cavers, and he hasn’t been strong enough to make a dent.
No, the Greens would need a super candidate, someone who’s already well known in the community, young, accomplished and articulate. Think of someone whose name you know who could match Terry Lake and Cathy McLeod for profile and I’ll bet that person isn’t inclined to go Green.
That’s no reflection on the Greens and their principles, it’s just a fact that there’s no one around who would fill the bill. There are, apparently, several people interested in the nomination so we’ll know soon enough. Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada? He was in town Thursday making some rounds but, seriously, his brand of right-wing politics is not going to make headway here.
Which, of course, brings us to Lake and McLeod. There was a time when getting the endorsement of the party leader, especially one who’s prime minister, was golden. The Steve Powrie campaign would have loved to get Justin Trudeau into the riding for some handshakes and selfies in 2015, but it didn’t happen. Party leaders are time-challenged and have to focus on ridings in which the party thinks it has a chance.
Trudeau, though, has made a point of celebrating Terry Lake’s candidacy. Clearly, the Liberals think they have a chance in Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo. Trudeau wouldn’t have spent three days in Kamloops in January if they didn’t. He wouldn’t have stopped in town this week on his way through to the Coast if they didn’t.
But Justin Trudeau’s stock has taken a dive since early in the year. He might not be a millstone, exactly, but he is now rated third among the leaders Canadians consider the most ethical, behind May and Andrew Scheer and ahead of Singh and Bernier, according to a Nanos poll a few weeks ago.
Along with Trudeau’s, Liberal fortunes have gone into freefall, with the Conservatives now comfortably ahead in polling. The 338canada.com compilation website suggests a Liberal-NDP coalition might have a shot at keeping the Tories out of power but that’s a thin possibility.
Nowhere is there a hint of a wave of any color, which makes it tough for Lake but must be comforting for McLeod as the incumbent.
But back to the person on the street. My survey of at least a dozen people — yes, it was that extensive — consisting of those I’ve talked to on a casual basis forms a consensus that Lake has a chance but that he has an uphill battle.
The street says that with the Conservatives now being the party to beat, McLeod has the edge.
Mel Rothenburger is a former mayor of Kamloops and newspaper editor. He publishes the ArmchairMayor.ca opinion website, and is a director on the Thompson-Nicola Regional District board. He can be reached at mrothenburger@armchairmayor.ca.
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Editor’s Note: This opinion piece reflects the views of its author, and does not necessarily represent the views of CFJC Today or the Jim Pattison Broadcast Group.
