KAMLOOPS — With little more than a couple of weeks before the writ is dropped and we enter the Campaign Proper, mystery still surrounds one of the more intriguing local aspects of the upcoming election — who will be mayor when the dust settles?
The central question remains: by-election, or no by-election?
To recap, the most logical scenario would be for Mayor Peter Milobar, if he becomes the MLA in the riding across the river from where he lives (sorry, I just have a thing about people living where they run, but all the North Shore candidates are in the same boat), he extends his unpaid leave of absence from City Hall until the beginning of next year.
That would bring the process into the same calendar year as the next scheduled civic election, which legislatively avoids the need for an expensive (guestimated at somewhere between $100,000 and $160,000) by-election.
Council could operate with an interim mayor. No muss, no fuss, no wasting money on a by-election. Despite the fact councillors have had several months to come up with a plan, though, they haven’t got it nailed down yet.
It’s not that they haven’t been trying; it’s that they can’t sort it out until Milobar confirms his intentions. Under the leave-of-absence option (he’s taking a leave as of when the writ is dropped, and could extend it to the end of the year), Council would be free to decide among themselves who would fill the vacancy, and that’s the conversation that’s been going on quietly behind the scenes. The interim council leader would best be someone who doesn’t have an eye on the permanent mayor’s job when the civic election comes up in 2018, to make sure nobody gets a leg up. So who will it be?
Word is that there isn’t necessarily complete agreement but that Coun. Arjun Singh — who ran second behind Ken Christian in the last election — has enough support to be given the job. Without a by-election, though, Christian’s mayoral aspirations would be put in the fridge until Saturday, Oct. 20 next year when the regular election comes around, whereas a by-election would get him in the chair sooner.
I’d venture that in most people’s view, a by-election would be irresponsible, especially since turnouts are notoriously low (expect something in the five to 10 per cent range) and wouldn’t serve democracy well.
The mayor, though he’s expressed concerns previously about the costs of by-elections, hasn’t confirmed whether he’ll resign the mayoralty immediately if elected MLA, or take a leave to January 2018 and then officially quit. And there’s no guarantee it won’t be an instant resignation. This is creating uncertainty among councillors who, as one put it, “thought we had it made in the shade” with a smooth transition via an interim mayor through to the regular civic election.
Milobar re-confirmed to me yesterday that he won’t say what he intends to do — leave of absence or resignation — until after May 9. I can’t see him forcing a by-election even if he doesn’t happen to agree with council’s choice for a temporary successor, but his position is that there’s nothing to talk about until he knows which job he’s going to be in.
Some, of course, might disagree. All things considered, it would be best for all concerned if he cleared it up now rather than later.
My prediction, if I had to make one, is that there will be no by-election and that consensus will be reached on which councillor will take over the big chair on a temporary basis, possibly with a compromise choice. I would further predict it will be someone other than Coun. Christian, but that after the next civic election, barring the emergence of a super-candidate from outside politics, his title will be His Worship the Mayor of Kamloops.
At the end of the day, though, it’s in Milobar’s hands as to which way it goes.
However, one caution: if Marg Spina — currently on leave for health reasons — should feel it necessary to resign before year’s end (and let’s hope that doesn’t happen and she gets well soon), a by-election would become necessary anyway.
As for winners and losers on May 9, polling numbers that show the NDP leading the Liberals (latest threehundredeight.com weighted polling averages to March 20 show the NDP ahead by almost four points) are intriguing, but at this point making any predictions is a fool’s game I won’t indulge in for now.
